Commentary robert J. lalonDe

Auspices, Auguries, Actuaries, and Agents

PreDICtIng tHe Future is wrought with uncertainty, but not if you have a good tool for looking at the past. the past, as it is often said, repeats itself. In ancient rome, a special kind of priest called a haruspex would “read” the entrails of sheep, in particular livers, since they were believed to be the source of blood and, therefore, the will of god. these priests would attempt to predict the future. would the harvest be bountiful or lean? should they be vigilant of invaders? the answers to these questions were pretty much made up because we all know that you can’t tell anything about the future by looking at a sheep’s liver.

The Latin word for haruspex is aus-
pex, and its plural is auspices. When
you Google the word auspices, the first
definition that comes up is “a divine or
prophetic token.” The meaning of the
word seems to have evolved over the
years, however, to that of “kindly en-
dorsement or guidance,” as in “actuarial
exams are given under the auspices of the
to those special prophets called actuar-
ies, who are involved in making financial
predictions such as the value of a block of
business or the amount of money needed
to fund pension benefits.

Beyond Binary

Auspices and auguries had a bit of a dilemma. Their predictions were binary. Either it happened or it didn’t happen.

The augur’s main role was to interpret
the will of the gods by studying the
flight of birds—
whether they are
flying in groups
or alone, what noises
they make as they fly, the
direction of their flight, and
what kind of birds they are.