Contingencies Online - July/August 2012

Skin in the Game CONTINUED

overview of Player Mortality

My independent study of players in the National Football League (NFL) shows that:

■ ■ NFL players in 1930 had 4 percent better mortality than men in the general population;

■ ■ NFL players in 1950 have 22. 1 percent better mortality than men in the general population (as measured through Dec. 31, 2010);

■ ■ NFL players in 1980 have 50. 1 percent better mortality than men in the general population (as measured through Dec. 31, 2010).

A similar study that I conducted of players in Major League Baseball finds that mortality results are uniformly better than for their football counterparts:

■ ■ MLB players in 1930 had 15. 4 percent better mortality than men in the general population;

■ ■ MLB players in 1950 have 31. 8 percent better mortality than men in the general population (as measured through Dec. 31, 2010);

■ ■ MLB players in 1980 have 64. 9 percent better mortality than men in the general population (as measured though Dec. 31, 2010).

As a life and health actuary for more than 30 years before my retirement, this struck me as either hype or urban legend. To gather some empirical evidence on football player longevity, I decided to do a mortality study of the men who played professional football in 1930, 1950, and 1980. At the same time, I studied Major League Baseball (MLB) players for the same years. I thought the comparison would be of interest to fans of both sports. I discovered that the mortality of football players is better than that of the general population, particularly at younger ages. But it’s not as good as that of baseball players—and the difference in mortality between the two groups of athletes becomes more evident as they age.

Play Hard, Live Strong

Better-than-average mortality for professional football players
shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who read the results of a
1994 report from the National Institute for Occupational Safety
and Health (NIOSH) to the NFL Players Association. As report-
ed in a 1994 fact sheet from the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, the NIOSH research indicates, “NFL players had a
standard mortality ratio (SMR) of . 54, or they had a 46 percent
decreased rate of death.”
NIOSH researchers also looked at causes of death and docu-
mented an increased risk of heart disease and nervous system
disorders for football players. It was this information that subse-
quently made its way onto the Internet, eclipsing the favorable
mortality statistic in the minds of many sports fans.

Age Under 40 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90 and older All ages Under 70 70 and older

TABLE 1

NFL Mortality Experience of
284 Men Who Played in 1930

Expected Deaths 15.81 19. 41 37.81 65. 25 80.91 61. 54 14.98

295.70
138.27
157.42
Actual Deaths

13 18 29 60 85 60

19
284
120
164
A/E
(percent)
82.2
92.8
76. 7
92.0
105.1
97.5
126.9
96.0
86.8
104.2

Age Under 40 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90 and older All ages Under 70 70 and older

TABLE 2

MLB Mortality Experience of
492 Men Who Played in 1930

Expected Deaths 23. 56 35. 59 70. 16

118.37
144.78
129.31
59.92
Actual Deaths
12
30
53
93
141
116
47
A/E
(percent)
50. 9
84.3
75. 5
78.6
97.4
89.7
78.4
118
304
247.67
334.01
75. 9
91.0