Departments
INsIDe trAck ..................... 6
Stop the Presses
Linda Mallon
PresIDeNt’s messAGe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
From Black Box to Glass House
Dave Sandberg
Letters.......................... 10
commeNtAry..................... 12
Financing Long-Term Care
Stephen A. Moses
uP to coDe............................... 18
A Look at Transparency
Robert J. Rietz
sPecIAL sectIoN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Recruiters
WorkshoP .............................. 60
A Further Refinement on the
Completion Factor Method
Louis Korb
stAtIstIcAL mIsceLLANy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
The Will Rogers Phenomenon
Edward Scher
trADecrAft ............................. 64
Mind the Gap—Recognizing Perceived and
Ultimate Liabilities
Susan J. Forray
bookLINks .............................. 68
The Theory That Would Not Die
Review by James Guszcza and Thomas N. Herzog
cryPtIc PuzzLe........................... 72
There Once Was a Man From
Nantucket
Tom Toce
PuzzLes................. 74
A Day at the Races
Mark Danburg-Wyld
eND PAPer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
On Followership
Sam Gutterman
PRESIDENT
Dave Sandberg
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Mary Downs
COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR
Mark Cohen
EDITOR AND ASSISTANT DIRECTOR FOR PUBLICATIONS
Linda Mallon
PUBLICATIONS & MARKETING PRODUCTION MANAGER
Cindy Johns
ADVERTISING
Mohanna Sales Representatives
(972) 596-8777
DEPARTMENT EDITORS
Thomas L. Bakos
Sam Gutterman
Robert J. Rietz
Mark Danburg-Wyld
PUBLICATION DESIGN & PRODUCTION
Bono Tom Studio Inc.
www.bonotom.com
EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD
Julia T. Philips, Chair
Dwight K. Bartlett III
Robert L. Brown
Frederick W. Kilbourne
Barbara J. Lautzenheiser
Bruce D. Schobel
Susan E. Witcraft
INTERNET ADDRESS
www.contingencies.org
Contingencies (ISSN 1048-9851) is published bimonthly by the American Academy of Actuaries, 1850 M Street, NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20036-5805.
For subscription information and customer service, contact the Contingencies
subscription department at the address above or (202) 223-8196. Advertising
offices: Mohanna Sales Representatives, (972) 596-8777, info@mohanna.com.
Periodicals postage paid at Washington, DC, and at additional mailing offices.
BPA circulation audited. (Basic annual subscription rate is included in dues.
Nonmember rate is $24.)
Copyright 2011. All rights reserved. This magazine may not be reproduced in
whole or in part without written permission of the publisher. Opinions expressed in signed articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect official policy of the American Academy of Actuaries.
Postmaster: Please send change-of-address notices for Contingencies to
Contingencies, PO Box 16976, North Hollywood, CA 91615-6976.
Ride along enclosed
WWW.CONTINGENCIES.ORG
