Makeover
projecting Mortality
Projections for future improvements in mortality were first introduced for use in U.S. annuity pricing with the 1949 mortality
table. The method applied an annual rate of decrease to mortality
rates that varied by age. The recommended rates of future decrease (scale B) were developed by examining annuity data and
long-term historical rates of decrease from a number of sources,
including population studies and data from Social Security, civil
service, and corporate plans, as well as foreign data. Rates of
decrease by cause of death were analyzed, and judgment and
adjustments for smoothing were used to develop rates of future improvement by age. Mortality improvement declined
at the older ages, reaching zero at age 90.
The 1951 group annuity table took scale B and made
some adjustments to develop scale C for group an-
nuities. In the 1971 group annuity mortality
table, a sex-distinct projection scale D
was introduced that was based on an
examination of recent improvements
in group annuity and other mortality
data (scale C was generally too low
for females and could not be used to update the 1951 table). The
1983 table was developed by projecting mortality improvement
using population data, after it was determined that scale D did
not produce sufficient reduction in mortality. Scale G was devel-
oped for individual annuities from population and other data and
expert opinion regarding future improvements by cause, similar
to scale B. Scale H for future group annuity mortality improve-
ment was developed by modifying scale G at the older ages to
equal 0 at 100.
Medical interventions
Anti-aging medicine practiced today generally consists of three
kinds of interventions:
■ ■ LifesTYLe—This includes healthful diet; exercise; avoiding
smoking, drugs, and other risky behaviors; as well as regular
physicals, diagnostic tests, and adherence to medical advice
to maintain healthy blood pressure; blood chemistries (sugar,
cholesterols, inflammation, and other markers); and weight. Scientists and health professionals are in agreement that this should
lead to longer lives. At least regarding weight, however, the U.S.
population appears to be moving in the opposite direction.
■ ■ horMones—This includes replacing testosterone, estrogen, progesterone, human growth hormone (HGH),
