End Paper ricHArd t. ZAtorsKi
lessons from the farm
EARLY nOvEmBER IS GEnERALLY a pleasurable time for turkeys.
The weather is cool and refreshing, the food is noticeably better and
more plentiful, and the general mood around the farm is upbeat. In fact,
if you took a survey in early november, the turkey population would
most likely report a high level of contentment and little desire for change.
Of course, turkeys are known to be
a bit shortsighted. Those of us with a
somewhat longer view recognize that
late November may well bring a change
to this idyllic state and that the shiny ax
in the corner of the barn is probably not
just for chopping wood.
In early November of 2009, the Gallup organization conducted a survey on
U.S. health care issues and found that 81
percent of respondents rated the quality
of their own care as either excellent or
good. In other words, you could say that a
large majority of the population reported
a high level of contentment and little desire for change.
However, that survey also showed
that a high majority of respondents rated
the general state of health care coverage
throughout the country as only fair or
poor. So, even though many of us are satisfied with our own access to quality care, we
realize that storm clouds line the horizon.
To use the analogy of the turkey farm,
we do realize that late November is
coming, and yet we don’t seem to be taking
sufficient steps to avoid the consequences.
the real danger is to assume that doing nothing
will maintain the status quo. it won't.
debated in Congress. For instance,
I don’t understand why the 45 million
Americans without health insurance
haven’t taken to the streets in support
of some level of universal coverage.
I don’t understand why widespread
uncertainty about job security hasn’t
translated to a much higher level of concern about heath security, since people
who lose their jobs are only a step away
from losing their health care coverage.
I don’t understand why health
care providers (who would benefit
substantially from the reduction in
uncompensated care that universal
coverage would bring) and responsible
employers (who are first-line observers
of the ever-increasing burden of providing health insurance to their employees)
have served more as stumbling blocks
than facilitators of change.
I don’t understand why senior citizens
feel entitled to universal coverage with-
out extending the same opportunity to
younger workers who are subsidizing the
costs of Medicare but can’t afford to buy
similar coverage for themselves or their
families. How loud would the outcry be,
for instance, if Medicare started denying
coverage for pre-existing conditions or
began surcharging senior citizens who
The one constant that seems to un-
derlie these perplexing attitudes is the
fear of change. Yet, the real danger is to
assume that doing nothing will maintain
the status quo. It won’t.
ricHArd t. ZAtorsKi is an actuary
who works for munich Re in Princeton,
n.J. He is a fellow of the Casualty
Actuarial Society and a member of
the Academy.
More information on the Gallup survey can
be found at
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124415/
Greater-Optimism-U.S.-Health-System-Coverage-
Costs.aspx
